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Extra 90% of the time

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Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 1:38 pm

demolt1313
Posts: 39
Joined: 26-Aug-11

Make Sure Krark's thumb is on the field. Play Stitch in time... you should get the rest...

EDIT: the name is supposed to be extra turn 90% of the time... my bad... typo


[Edited by demolt1313 on 25/Sep/11 at 1:39PM]
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 1:44pm

TheCaptain
Posts: 909
Joined: 13-Apr-11

I'm no expert in statistics, but I'm pretty sure its only a 75% chance... but yeah those cards work well together. throw in fiery gambit too
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 1:45pm

Zark-the-Damned
Posts: 523
Joined: 24-Feb-10

It's only a 75% chance of extra turn, not 90% :)
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 2:03pm

demolt1313
Posts: 39
Joined: 26-Aug-11

well the 90% was an exaggeration to start with. And statistically speaking it is 75% on a basis on the number of flips but on a shared probability standpoint it is more like 80 to 85%, if i am doing my math right. And also what is cool about the way Krark's thumb works, with you getting to ignore one possibility and accepting another, it changes the percent of the chosen outcome entirely because of the pidgeon hole principal.

But either way, your chances are still significantly higher and these two cards are fairly cheap (in terms of money) to buy and play with.


[Edited by demolt1313 on 25/Sep/11 at 2:04PM]
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 2:33pm

rav514
Posts: 329
Joined: 02-Dec-10

Actually, its still 50%. Or something like 50.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.
Its true over a very large sample size that probabilities will play true. However, the odd don't change enough to count over such a small sample size as 2 flips. So here's the question; if you flip a coin and it comes up tails what are the odds the next flip will be heads? A: 50%, single flips ignore the balancing effect of a large sample size. If you flip 2 coins at once what are the odds one will come up heads?

A: Well (50% "per coin" x 2 "number of heads on each coin" = 100%)/2 "which is the number of coins flipped" = 50%

edit: In order to "change" the probability getting the result u want need a very large amount of coins flipped so probablities start to kick in or more possible outcomes that "heads" or "tails". I'm sure an actual statistician could tell u how many u need.

[Edited by rav514 on 25/Sep/11 at 2:41PM]
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 2:45pm

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

Now, who here understands what they're talking about and who is just using fake terms and math to prove their non-existent point?
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 3:16pm

TheCaptain
Posts: 909
Joined: 13-Apr-11

I assure you its 75%. Think about it logically, (we'll assume heads is a win, and tails is a loss) you flip the first coin. The first flip has a 50% chance heads and 50% tails. So on your first flip, its a 50/50 shot. Let's say that you get tails. Then the second flip matters, so your next flip will determine the outcome. Of that flip, its again 50% heads and 50% tails, but theres only a 50% you'll even reach that point, remember? So you're really looking at 25% heads and 25% tails components of the first tails flip, because the other 50% is from the heads part of the first flip.

I'm sure I make no sense, but I can at least say for certainty that its not 50%. That just doesn't make sense. How could flipping a second coin not improve the chances? If I gave you a test, and you only needed to get one question right, would you rather take the test with one true/false question or the one with two true/false questions?
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 3:22pm

demolt1313
Posts: 39
Joined: 26-Aug-11

haha, actually Turbine both of us are right.. and wrong.

I was wrong on the statistics... I figured that out after my last post. Rav514 is right about it being still statistically %50 chance.

But what I was trying to say is that statistics are just numbers on possible outcomes and not the actual probability (yes there is a difference). They are severely related to each other, but the reason you have a higher chance of actually flipping the right outcome is higher than %50 chance for at least two reasons:

One is that you have a shared probability or in other words, you have a second chance to get what you want. The first coin is a 50/50 chance for each side and then the second coin is also a 50/50 chance. This is where statistics would say a resulting 50/50 chance. But probability would say that the outcome is shared between each 50/50 chance. This results in a combination of the probability equations called binomial distribution and independent probability. You use variations of these to solve for the probability of one success of outcomes out of a particular number of tries in an independent event. the resulting probability is approximately %86.

The second reason is the clause inside Krark's thumb. You get to ignore one outcome. You are not depending your chances on both outcomes but only out of two events. At first I was thinking that it was considered to fall under the pidgeon hole principal, and it kinda does, but it is much simpler than that. You have a greater chance of flipping two different outcomes that you do the same outcome twice in a row. I don't feel like calculating the probability of each of those events and factoring them into each other but statistically you do have a %50 chance of flipping two different sides of a coin after two tries, where as with flipping one coin you have a %50 chance of only flipping one side of a coin.

Now after my super lengthy explanation, I hope this makes sense to everyone and I hope I am doing my math right. It has been a couple of semesters since I took discrete math.

But kudos to Rav514, I appreciate the additional input.


[Edited by demolt1313 on 25/Sep/11 at 3:27PM]
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 4:34pm

gericault5
Posts: 2788
Joined: 13-Oct-09

You all are thinking about this way to much:

while the odds of getting heads are always going to be 50/50, it does not equal that in the possibility of an extra turn.  You all are not taking into account the coins are flipped at the same time and you ignore one of them. 

So with 2 coins you have 4 possible outscomes

tails and tails -you lose

heads and tails -you win

tails and heads -you win

heads and heads -you win

3 out of 4 possibilitys are win's so its a 75% chance for the extra turn

 


[Edited by gericault5 on 25/Sep/11 at 4:58PM]
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 5:07pm

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

Yay for simplicity!

What Gericault did reminds me of Biology though. . .with those table things. . .
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 6:03pm

krowbar28
Posts: 434
Joined: 18-Oct-10

your all thinking way to much. fliping a coin is always 50% you still have to call heads or tails 1 is half of 2 half, half is 50%
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 6:12pm

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

Well, if you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance it will be heads. If you flip it again, it's 50% again.

However, if you estimate the probability of two coins with both being heads, it is a 25% chance.
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 7:12pm

krowbar28
Posts: 434
Joined: 18-Oct-10

you don't need heads on both coins. simple math (1 out of 2 chances is half) (2 out of 4 chances is half)
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 7:41pm

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

I realize that. I was just using one of the probabilities. As Gericault pointed out, there is a 75% chance of getting one head.
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 7:56pm

rav514
Posts: 329
Joined: 02-Dec-10

http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/jo/probability/info.htm

Go to this site. Scroll down to the middle. select 2 coins and 1 head.
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 7:57pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

@crowbar
Yes, there is a 2 out of 4 chance that youll get 1 head, but theres also the chance of getting 2 heads! thats 3 out of 4.!

@turbine
theres a 50 percent chance of getting 1 head! theres a 25% chance of getting 2 heads. thats 75 percent!
Date Posted: Sun Sep/25/11 at 8:10pm

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

I'm sorry. I meant at least one head.
Date Posted: Mon Sep/26/11 at 11:22am

E-n-S
Posts: 189
Joined: 16-Aug-10

There are 4 possible results:

Heads/Tails

Tails/Heads

Heads/Heads

Tails/Tails

So it's a 75% chance to get the result you want.
Date Posted: Mon Sep/26/11 at 4:00pm

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

I think we've established that three times now.
Date Posted: Mon Sep/26/11 at 4:14pm

darthnefas
Posts: 1081
Joined: 04-Apr-11

Somebody add in Panoptic Mirror and then you can argue every third turn!  lol
Date Posted: Mon Sep/26/11 at 8:51pm

[deleted troll]
Posts: 0
Joined: 03-Jan-70

Coins are kinda iffy...
Date Posted: Tue Sep/27/11 at 10:23am

E-n-S
Posts: 189
Joined: 16-Aug-10

@Turbine: Sry, I was too lazy to read everything.^^




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