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Title: At least one by turn k (and other data)
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 10:17am

Jingbo
Posts: 72
Joined: 21-Dec-11

So I was wondering what my chances would be of having a certain card by turn k.  Instead of counting turns, I count draws (so draw 7 means your initial hand and draw 10 could mean the third turn).

Suppose I have a 60 card deck and I have n copies of a certain card in my deck.  What is the probability that I will have at least one copy of this card by draw k?
(of course assuming that all cards drawn are available to me)  In the
following graph, the colored numbers represent the number of copies of
the chosen card in your 60 card deck. k is the x-axis.


Now suppose you have 4 copies of a card in a 60 card deck.  The following graph shows the chances of getting at least n of them by draw k.  The x-axis is the k and the colored numbers are the n's.

Now if you only had 3, 2 or 1 copies of the card in your deck:




-Jingbo

[Edited by Jingbo on 21/Jan/12 at 10:22AM]
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 10:34am

T}{3 0l\l3 VV}{0 1S
Posts: 178
Joined: 10-Jun-11

I can't see the graphs!
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 11:32am

Jingbo
Posts: 72
Joined: 21-Dec-11

These are the graphs in order:
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/3402/atleast1bydrawk.png
http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/4373/atleastnbydrawk2.png
http://img857.imageshack.us/img857/2313/atleastnbydrawk3.png
http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/4490/atleastnbydrawk4.png
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 11:53am

Narcinek War-Rider
Posts: 1283
Joined: 16-Jun-11

First define n and k.
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 11:56am

Jingbo
Posts: 72
Joined: 21-Dec-11

They are obvious if you read carefully.  I say "draw k" and the x-axis is labelled "Draw."  I also specifically state what the colored numbers in the graph represent.  Those are the only two numbers other than the probabilities which wouldn't be represented by any whole numbers except 0 and 1 possibly.

n is the colored numbers...





[Edited by Jingbo on 21/Jan/12 at 11:58AM]
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 12:03pm

T}{3 0l\l3 VV}{0 1S
Posts: 178
Joined: 10-Jun-11

well thats pretty nifty . . .
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 12:07pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

PARRABARRAS!
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 12:35pm

Narcinek War-Rider
Posts: 1283
Joined: 16-Jun-11

Is this a math problem or are you just trying to show us how smart you are.
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 12:43pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

Hes showing you how smart he is in a helpful way that will help you decide how many of a card to put in your deck!
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 12:54pm

TheCaptain
Posts: 909
Joined: 13-Apr-11

Yeah this is pretty darn helpful, especially if you're building a combo deck that's designed to be competitve. Easy to understand, nice work!
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 1:05pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

Its all actually pretty intuitive though!

If you want a card every game, put in 4 and things to search for it! If you have a legendary card/world enchantment that isnt completely necessary for your strategy, play 2-3! If you have situational cards, run 1-4 depending on versatility and meta!

The more of each card you have, the more consistent and therefore reliable your deck will be! Thats why edh is so much fun, because you play 1 of each card, so every game is different!

EDIT: That wasnt implying that the charts are unhelpful! Its been a while since i actually looked at the probability charts and the refresher is nice!


[Edited by PinkamenaDianePie on 21/Jan/12 at 1:11PM]
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 3:07pm

Jingbo
Posts: 72
Joined: 21-Dec-11

Go back to school Narcinek.  Or at least stop posting.
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 4:24pm

krowbar28
Posts: 434
Joined: 18-Oct-10

man i'm starting to like this Jingbo guy more and more
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 4:45pm

Boyachi
Posts: 1553
Joined: 02-Nov-11

Not everyone may recall the horror of tourneys when things like Scalpeplexis were the big thing. Having the max. # of not-basic-land cards be three made all the difference. Oh Judgement, those were the days.
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 5:21pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

Ice age was the shit! Combocombocombocombo!
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 6:57pm

DyingJester
Posts: 1771
Joined: 16-Dec-08

That's interesting..but math is a boring as hell subject...can you make some graphs with backgrounds? (Preferably something gushingly adorable...Like a hyper moe hamster girl...or an undead sith loli...I'm cool with either/or...)
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 7:13pm

Jingbo
Posts: 72
Joined: 21-Dec-11

I don't get it... I'm giving you relevant data for constructing your deck better... and it is easy to read and requires very little understanding of math.  I thought this was relevant to the people on this site.  Feel free to shoop ponies on my graphs if that makes you feel better.

Saying "math is boring" is just another way of saying "the truth is boring" because mathematics is simply true consequences of given assumptions.
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 7:34pm

DyingJester
Posts: 1771
Joined: 16-Dec-08

I'm trying to be comedic man...not trying to insult the data (Which I admit it is relevant and yes it is fairly useful.) There's a reason my screen name is DyingJESTER. I jest, it's what we jesters do (It's kind of where we get our name from). Now seriously (or not seriously if you prefer) why else would I even broach the topic of an undead sith loli (or a hyper moe hamster girl) for that matter if it wasn't meant to be comedic. Please don't take these kind of quirky statements seriously. I will however say that Math can be interesting, but to be honest it is among the least of exciting things in life (right up there with professional staring and trying to move a clock with your mind). Now as far as math goes it is truth, but to be honest I'd rather a beautiful lie (like an equal government) over a boring truth. I get the feeling you are a very critical person (and I respect that). I meant you no disrespect (Believe you me if I was serious I wouldn't have taken the time to post this long as hell explanation or as Pinkie would say: Dude, you wrote a fuckin' book).  If it seemed like I was disrespectful then I apologize (or if you like do a little musical number, I am quite a beast at lyrics).

Sincerely yours,

The Dying Jester

PS: I vote Jingbo for most mathematical pony.

PSS: This is where I cease being serious, just to give you fair warning.

o<(^_^)>o
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 9:06pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

You did....! (Again!)
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 9:58pm

lin sivvi
Posts: 1608
Joined: 14-Jan-10

Yes the truth is boring (fiction is so much more fun).

But did you remember to take into account that cards drawn reduces the deck size, and a card drawn can't be drawn again?
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 10:16pm

Jingbo
Posts: 72
Joined: 21-Dec-11

Yes I did.  I have 2 math degrees.  I did it correctly.
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 10:48pm

DyingJester
Posts: 1771
Joined: 16-Dec-08

And...on a side note...can I post the ponified versions of your charts? I kinda got bored...
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 10:59pm

DyingJester
Posts: 1771
Joined: 16-Dec-08

Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 11:00pm

DyingJester
Posts: 1771
Joined: 16-Dec-08

Aww...I broke it...DX
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 11:19pm

[deleted troll]
Posts: 0
Joined: 03-Jan-70

I stack the deck. To hell with your formulas. GG, mate. Cheating rules.
Date Posted: Sat Jan/21/12 at 11:26pm

lin sivvi
Posts: 1608
Joined: 14-Jan-10

In that case, thanks a lot man, I've been looking for something like this.
Date Posted: Sun Jan/22/12 at 12:44am

Narcinek War-Rider
Posts: 1283
Joined: 16-Jun-11

I KINDA do the same things with my decks. I don't make mathmatic graphs but I do something like this.
Date Posted: Sun Jan/22/12 at 9:51am

DyingJester
Posts: 1771
Joined: 16-Dec-08

@ Narcinek: What you stack the deck? Cause I gotta say that's hardly sporting of you.
Date Posted: Sun Jan/22/12 at 10:16am

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

I've already done this, but I didn't graph it.
Date Posted: Sun Jan/22/12 at 10:34am

Narcinek War-Rider
Posts: 1283
Joined: 16-Jun-11

@Jester
All I do is separate my different copies of cards.
Date Posted: Sun Jan/22/12 at 11:30pm

DyingJester
Posts: 1771
Joined: 16-Dec-08

WHY WOULD YOU GRAPH STACKING THE DECK!? THAT MAKES NO SENSE!!!!WAHHHH!!!! T__T
Date Posted: Mon Jan/23/12 at 7:25am

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

I think hes talking about sorting cards by their cmc and color to balance the mana base...!
Date Posted: Mon Jan/23/12 at 1:01pm

Turbine
Posts: 10194
Joined: 26-Oct-09

That's technically considered stacking.
Date Posted: Mon Jan/23/12 at 2:47pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

Not while actually playing, while building the deck....!

I may be way off though!
Date Posted: Mon Jan/23/12 at 4:13pm

Narcinek War-Rider
Posts: 1283
Joined: 16-Jun-11

I do that at home after I've built or moded the deck. I'm not doing it at tournaments so they can't say anything.
Date Posted: Mon Jan/23/12 at 4:30pm

lin sivvi
Posts: 1608
Joined: 14-Jan-10

if you pile shuffle it won't matter, I've got into the habbit of pile shuffling after every game.
Date Posted: Mon Jan/23/12 at 4:42pm

PinkiePie
Posts: 157
Joined: 10-Sep-11

Okay, i was wrong!



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